Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 32.595982 35.135740 37.888977 41.115477 44.819224 48.970286 54.021310
2025-04-27 29.379075 32.882599 36.933071 42.037676 48.413212 56.279278 67.002622
2025-05-04 27.274655 31.275274 36.100438 42.493604 50.983112 62.264422 79.173278
2025-05-11 25.396101 29.628012 34.890965 42.130256 52.212383 66.446465 89.615765
2025-05-18 23.795332 28.132798 33.657714 41.488695 52.832531 69.703555 99.304406
2025-05-25 22.406747 26.775307 32.448596 40.691301 53.035853 72.251471 108.379879
2025-06-01 21.248421 25.624161 31.402486 39.982064 53.220802 74.715945 117.935907
2025-06-08 20.122786 24.439221 30.214028 38.937020 52.725380 75.909006 125.313170
2025-06-15 19.818234 24.334962 30.501968 40.074839 55.809614 83.860238 150.117300
2025-06-22 19.158766 23.698664 29.982980 39.922046 56.712952 87.946685 167.845833
2025-06-29 18.416553 22.906350 29.185932 39.260110 56.645085 90.097391 181.583664
2025-07-06 17.612182 21.989358 28.155503 38.146850 55.650620 90.165789 189.427379
2025-07-13 17.417104 21.945407 28.435962 39.212647 58.814046 99.969722 235.802954
2025-07-20 17.172767 21.817844 28.582203 40.071353 61.730459 110.141386 296.094556
2025-07-27 16.841241 21.543334 28.481325 40.492581 63.844732 119.049439 365.692635
2025-08-03 16.361422 21.026797 27.972600 40.156834 64.363699 123.965995 424.406263
2025-08-10 15.858136 20.454567 27.346408 39.563652 64.264515 127.170153 480.559988
2025-08-17 15.356071 19.865629 26.666247 38.825757 63.767992 129.123777 534.236402
2025-08-24 14.901501 19.332741 26.052637 38.168848 63.378690 131.352242 599.864048
2025-08-31 14.407529 18.724634 25.293908 37.199883 62.192593 130.809408 638.740533
2025-09-07 14.351668 18.781249 25.613692 38.254810 65.761056 147.215341 998.739190
2025-09-14 14.063564 18.469647 25.313606 38.113233 66.501821 154.168783 1313.159223
2025-09-21 13.700746 18.031111 24.785557 37.499583 66.026436 156.438676 1569.798144